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As readers may have noticed, we are no longer in a business-as-usual environment. As the US ratings agency S&P Global recently warned, “a world ordered for generations by globalisation and geo-economics” has quickly become a world rife with “geopolitical risk.” Relations between the two largest nuclear powers, Russia and the United States, are arguably at their most fraught since the 1963 Cuban Missile Crisis. As the Ukraine conflict drags on, with no clear end in sight, the risks of direct conflict between Russia and NATO rise while the economic fallout continues to grow.
Events in the first half of 2023 served, or at least should have served, as a timely reminder of the importance of counterparty risk. Over the course of just five days in early March, three small-to-mid size U.S. banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in global bank stock prices. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the first to fall after a fire sale of its treasury bond portfolio at a large loss triggered widespread loss of depositor confidence, ultimately culminating in a fatal bank run.
Corporate treasurers could be forgiven for hedging their bets regarding inflation in 2025 and looking forward to 2026. Over the past five years, we have seen official inflation all but disappear only to rapidly surge to double-digit levels, which now appear to be behind us. However, appearances can be deceiving.
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